Bail out! Bail out!

So for the last couple of days I've been eagerly wanting to write about this whole bail out issue. But, as anyone who's following this debacle can attest, the status of negotiations has been so tenuous you'd think it was being handled by pre-pubescent high school drama queens. And the queen diva: John McCain. The gall this guy had to "suspend" his campaign and supposedly return to Washington to help fix things? Give me a break of that Kit Kat bar.

First of all, McCain did not go to Washington immediately as he indicated he would. How do I know this? David Letterman. And he is waaarm...


(Skip to around 6:36 to see McCain get caught red-handed)

I haven't counted myself, but estimates put the number of shots at McCain throughout the show at a whopping 31.

So, McCain basically bailed out on his professed urgent need to return to the Hill. By the time he finally arrived leaders of both parties had announced that there was fundamental agreement on the basic tenants of the bailout package modifications. Everyone seemed ready to get something signed by today or, latest, by the start of next week. And then, there was the White House summit with Dubbya, both presidential nominees, Paulson, and congressional leaders from both parties. Certainly now was McCain's time to shine, right? Here's the account from the New York Times:

But once the doors closed, the smooth-talking House Republican leader, John A. Boehner of Ohio, surprised many in the room by declaring that his caucus could not support the plan to allow the government to buy distressed mortgage assets from ailing financial companies.

Mr. Boehner pressed an alternative that involved a smaller role for the government, and Mr. McCain, whose support of the deal is critical if fellow Republicans are to sign on, declined to take a stand...

Mr. McCain was at one end of the long conference table, Mr. Obama at the other, with the president and senior Congressional leaders between them. Participants said Mr. Obama peppered Mr. Paulson with questions, while Mr. McCain said little.

Well, I'm sure this alternative plan being considered wasn't John McCain's fault...right? (I think you know where this is going)

But a top aide to Mr. Boehner said it was Democrats who had done the political posturing. The aide, Kevin Smith, said Republicans revolted, in part, because they were chafing at what they saw as an attempt by Democrats to jam through an agreement on the bailout early Thursday and deny Mr. McCain an opportunity to participate in the agreement.

It's so hard. It is so hard to see the screen right now through the tears of sadness I weep for McCain. The big kids didn't let him participate in their deal, so now his real friends are coming to his rescue. People, this is the guy who might end up being IN CHARGE of a pending financial crisis!

So here's some speculation from TIME blogger Michael Scherer on how this whole situation may end up playing out in light of recent events (although this couple be completely upended by new developments, like McCain's new plan to get rid of money and return to a bartering system).

1. It is clear that Senate leaders and Democratic strategists have not fully anticipated the degree of revolt growing in among House conservatives, most of whom came to Washington on a platform of keeping the government out of the economy. Conservative leaders say that every hour that has passed since last Friday has emboldened the rebellion. Phone calls and faxes are bombarding congressional offices, with huge margins of voters demanding that the bailout be opposed. Activists are motivating their bases to oppose the deal.

2. It remains squarely within McCain's interest to get a deal before the markets open on Monday, both because that is what he said he would do on Wednesday when he announced he was returning to Washington and because the deal that leaders put together yesterday seems to address most of McCain's stated concerns. It is hard for McCain to demonstrate his leadership, experience and "country first" determination if he cannot find a way to prevent what everyone agrees will be, at minimum, a short-term collapse of the markets, once they realize no bailout is coming right away.

3. It is unclear how much pull McCain has with the House Republican holdouts. Though McCain is the leader of the GOP, he has historically not been on good terms with those ideological activists that form the core of its Congressional membership. It's possible that this final delay is just a gambit to win some compromise and allow McCain to declare a greater leadership and experience victory. It's also possible that Republican leaders have a populist revolt on their hands they cannot control. Most likely, it is a combination of both these things, though in what mixture it is difficult to divine.

4. McCain might win if he can (at least appear) to broker a deal and then appear victorious at the debate tonight. It might not be fatal for McCain if the negotioations continue into tomorrow, he can (at least appear) to broker a deal Saturday, and then the debate is rescheduled. McCain will lose if he appears at the debate tonight with no clear deal, or (as mentioned above) if no deal is struck before Monday morning. These are the standards he has set for himself.

5. The whole spectacle would be much more fun to watch if it wasn't for the fact that the nation's economy, the jobs of millions, the prosperity of a nation, hangs in the balance.